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A Trump-Putin Deal Over Ukraine Does Not Look Good for Europe
By Ricardo Martins | December 30, 2024
"Stop pushing Zelensky into peace talks", tells EU Foreign Affairs chief to European leaders. For the EU, a negotiated peace deal is a win for Putin and a defeat for Europe. Understand the reasons.
Europe has invested too much to settle for 'just' a peace deal: the goal was to crush Russia
The total amount of military aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict in February 2022 amounts to $119 billion, including 62 billion from the U.S., as confirmed by Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin. The amount allocated under the humanitarian label is more than double.
Europe has channelled significant resources into Ukraine, from financial aid packages, to military equipment, and training programmes. Great Britain, along with the U.S., has been crucial in intelligence support too. Beyond this, Europe has also invested heavily in influencing public opinion with narratives such as "Putin will invade Europe next." The scale of these war-supporting efforts has been so extensive that many European countries have depleted both their arms stockpiles and public finances.
Europe risks losing credibility both within its borders and on the global stageAnnalena Baerbock, Germany's Foreign Minister, has underscored the financial burden of ongoing support for Ukraine, revealing that the €37 billion allocated has necessitated cuts to social spending programs within Germany. The consequences of this financial obligation are staggering, according to the minister: crucial investments in early childhood programs and infrastructure modernization have been sidelined in favour of military assistance to Ukraine.
These efforts were designed to position Europe as a steady ally of Ukraine, committed to defending democratic values and regional stability. However, the looming possibility of an eventual Trump-Putin deal leaves Europe in a precarious position, grappling with the absence of a clear, face-saving strategy.
Therefore, the EU foreign affairs chief, Kaja Kallas, downplayed discussions about peace during her first meeting with EU foreign affairs ministers in Brussels, disregarding a Gallup poll showing that a majority of Ukrainians (52%) favour peace negotiations, while 38% support continuing the fighting. Kallas went further, admonishing EU heads of state at the latest EU summit: "Stop pushing Zelensky into peace talks."
The most striking aspect of this statement is that it comes from someone holding the title of EU diplomacy chief—a role traditionally centered on fostering dialogue and negotiation. Yet, this very individual appears to dismiss the importance of diplomacy, even as Putin has repeatedly expressed willingness to engage in negotiations.
Previously, when Hungary assumed the presidency of the Council of Europe in July 2024, its president Viktor Orbán embarked on a peace mission to Kyiv and Moscow. Instead of receiving support, Orbán faced sharp criticism, threats of having Hungary's presidency sidelined, and even the sabotage of activities organized under its leadership. Such hostility underscores the entrenched resistance in Europe towards any peace deal regarding the conflict.
Fear of Geopolitical Insignificance?
European Union leaders have voiced growing concerns over the potential ramifications of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed approach to resolving the war in Ukraine. Trump's promise to prioritize a quick resolution to the conflict has sparked fears in Brussels that such a deal, likely negotiated directly with Moscow, could come at a steep cost for Ukraine and the security architecture of the European continent.
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News update for 3 January 2024 concerning Slovakia and Ukraine:
It is a hard reality for NATO to accept but Russia has pretty much defeated NATO in Ukraine:
The usual culprits will do anything they can to invoke NATO's Article 5:
Another brilliant European politician apparently not too clued in on Russia's military capabilities including Russia's navy receiving 38 new naval assets. It's a good thing Poland receives its natural gas from Norway otherwise they will be burning wood stoves this winter in Warsaw.
Nothing is free as this proxy war of attrition against Russia grinds on:
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