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Oreshnik and its kin
What it means
By Julian MacFarlane | January 20, 2025
I was a little surprised today when I tuned into the Duran as I always do in the morning to see what the two Alex's were saying. Alexander was commenting on the possibility of multiple Oreshnik strikes in the spring. According to him a "confidential Russian source" had informed him that mass production of Oreshnik missiles were ongoing— along with variants optimized for different warheads, including thermobaric warheads.
This is hardly news since Putin himself has said publicly several times that mass production was underway – and also the development of variants.
In other words, Oreshnik – used previously!— was a test of just one example of a whole new class of weapons – something that Andrei Martyanov has also alluded to.
As Putin has said, these new weapons are a result of recent advances in materials technology but profiting from past technologies and continuous long-term research, allowing for fast implementation of production.
For more details you can go to the truly excellent Black Mountain Analysis.
As a class these weapons:
• are almost impossible to interceptNothing new about this. Sorry Alexander. Your "confidential source" just reads RT.
• are stealthy and difficult to track , much less target, after the boost phase, thanks to a plasma bubble
• have multiple warheads and multiple warhead options, offering the capability of tactical nuke with just a few missiles
• offer long range – all of Europe and from the Eastern Russia much of the Pacific and even Western North America.
Inert warheads for deep below ground penetration are one advantage. Thermobaric warheads for above ground wide area devastation might be another. Conventional explosives for precision, narrowly targeted destruction another.
Thermobaric attack Syria
Mercouris thinks that Russia will use multiple Oreshnik strikes on the Ukraine, with inert warheads targeting underground facilities and thermobaric warheads for area destruction to finish off Ukrainian resistance.
He bases this conclusion apparently on discussions with "military experts" – but defers to people with experience in the US military. There are a LOT of ex-military people on line, the Good, the Bad, and Ugly.
Sadly, however, no one in the US military has experience in peer to peer war (as Martyanov points out ) and certainly none in the use of the new kinds of tactics and weaponry that Russia is using. In other words, there are no "experts". Your local barrista knows as much, probably more, than some retired colonel.
What does a guy who drove a tank in Afghanistan know about hypersonic missiles? Of the newest generation of wire-guided drones?
Mercouris also seems to assume that Putin wants a quick and decisive end to the war.--as Americans or the Brits might. As I have said before, Putin does not recognize the SMO as a "war" – but a military operation. Nor is he in a hurry. As a strategist, he takes things one step at a time. He is building a civilization - which means he is definitely not American or British.
Putin is a careful, pragmatic gradualist— as we can see from the almost leisurely way he is picking apart the Ukrainian grid of defenses in the Donbas and disassembling Banderite military infrastructure one power plant at a time. The longer the war goes on, the stronger Russia gets, building on one success after another—unifying its people. Eventually, the Ukrainians themselves will turn on the Nazis — and their Nazi backers in Washington and London.
Please go to substack to continue reading and to view images..
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