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Source: Zero Hedge
JPMorgan Models War Between Russia And Ukraine: Sees Oil Soaring To $150, Global Growth Crashing
BY TYLER DURDEN | FRIDAY, JAN 21, 2022
With Morgan Stanley joining Goldman and calling for $100 oil, and Bank of America's commodity strategist Francisco Blanch one-upping both, and today laying out the case for $120 oil...
... on Friday afternoon JPMorgan trumped all of its banking peers with a report that is especially troubling if not so much for the implications from its "theoretical" modeling, but for the fact that Wall Street is now actively assessing what may be the start of World War 3.
In a note from the bank's economists Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman (available to pro subs) which picks up where our article "Shades Of 2008 As Oil Decouples From Everything" left off, JPM writes that oil shocks have a long history of driving cyclical downturns, with US recessions often associated with oil price spikes...
Please go to Zero Hedge to read more.
Response to the US Department of State's fact sheet: Facts vs. Fiction: Russian Disinformation on Ukraine
January 22, 2022 | 34 Comments
From the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
On January 20, @StateDept released a "fact sheet" (https://is.gd/QBgF3i) on the so-called Russian disinformation on Ukraine🤦♂️
☝️ Nothing written in that material withstands critical scrutiny.
⚡️ Here is our response to the above-mentioned "analytical" work. Hopefully, our American and NATO colleagues will make time to review it carefully.
Response to the US Department of State's fact sheet Facts vs. Fiction: Russian Disinformation on Ukraine
❌ "Fact" cited by the US Department of State:
False statements from the Putin regime blame the victim, Ukraine, for Russia's aggression. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, occupies Crimea, controls armed forces in the Donbass, and has now amassed more than 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine while President Putin threatens "retaliatory military-technical" measures if his demands are not met.
❗ Reality:
The blame for destabilising the situation in Ukraine lies entirely with the United States and other NATO countries, which supported the coup in February 2014, resulting in the toppling of the duly elected president and nationalists coming to power. Fearing for their own safety, residents of Crimea and Donbass chose not to live under the government of the followers of Stepan Bandera and Roman Shukhevych. As a result, Crimea reunited with Russia, the Donetsk and Lugansk regions declared independence, and Kiev unleashed a civil war against Donbass, which continues to this day.
❌ "Fact" cited by the US Department of State:
Moscow instigated the current crisis by placing more than 100,000 troops on the border of Ukraine, with no similar military activity on the Ukrainian side of the border. Russian military and intelligence entities are targeting Ukraine with disinformation attempting to paint Ukraine and Ukrainian government officials as the aggressor in the Russia-Ukraine relationship. The Russian government is trying to trick the world into believing Ukraine's behavior could provoke a global conflict and to convince Russian citizens of the need for Russian military action in Ukraine. Russia blames others for its own aggression, but it is Moscow's responsibility to end this crisis peacefully through de-escalation and diplomacy. Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2014, occupies Crimea, and continues to fuel conflict in eastern Ukraine. This follows a pattern of Russian behavior of undermining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries in the region – invading and occupying parts of Georgia in 2008, and failing to honour its 1999 commitment to withdraw its troops and munitions from Moldova, where they remain without the government's consent.
❗ Reality:
The Kiev authorities and the conniving West are trying to portray Russia as a party to the conflict in Donbass. However, in Paragraph 2 of the Package of Measures, the parties recognise Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk as parties to the conflict in relation to military issues and are further mentioned with regard to all other aspects of the settlement. Russia, in conjunction with the OSCE, is acting as a mediator in the Contact Group (CG) and the Normandy format alongside Germany and France.
The United States and NATO countries are doing so in order to divert the international community from their own military deployment in Ukraine. The armed forces of Ukraine and the Alliance are building up military activity in the immediate proximity to the Russian borders and conduct large-scale multinational military exercises. There will be 10 of them this year, which is codified in the law of December 14, 2021 on the admission to Ukraine of units of foreign armed formations in 2022. The law provides for a significant scale-up of exercises. In fact, the number of participants will double, and the quantity of materiel will increase by orders of magnitude.
These actions contradict Paragraph 10 of the Package of Measures, which provides for the withdrawal of all foreign armed formations from the territory of Ukraine.
The allegation that Russia has "occupied" parts of Georgia and refuses to withdraw its troops from Moldova is a sheer lie. Abkhazia and South Ossetia gained independence as a result of the aggressive policy of Tbilisi, and Russian troops are stationed there legitimately in accordance with bilateral agreements with these countries in order to stave off Georgian aggression. The completion of the withdrawal of troops from Transnistria depends on the settlement of the conflict between Chisinau and Tiraspol, which is enshrined in OSCE documents that were adopted with the participation of the United States.
❌ "Fact" cited by the US Department of State:
Deploying more than 100,000 Russian troops, including battle-hardened combat forces and offensive weaponry with no plausible innocuous explanation, to the borders of a country that Russia has previously invaded and still occupies in places is no mere troop rotation. It is a clear, renewed Russian threat to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The buildup is paired with active disinformation measures designed to undermine confidence in the Ukrainian government and create a pretext for further Russian incursion.
❗ Reality:
Russia regularly conducts military exercises on its territory and carries out snap inspections of troops. Meanwhile, the United States deploys its armed forces and offensive arms in the countries of Eastern Europe several thousands of miles away from its national borders, thereby undermining European security and strategic stability. By sending weapons and military advisers to Ukraine, the US is encouraging the Kiev regime's aggressive actions against its own population in Donbass.
❌ "Fact" cited by the US Department of State:
The United States and Russia are parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention. In accordance with its obligations under that international agreement, the United States does not use chemical weapons. However, the Russian government has twice used chemical weapons in recent years to attack and attempt to assassinate opponents, including on foreign soil. Rather than fuel conflict in eastern Ukraine as Russia has done, the United States has provided more than $351 million in humanitarian assistance to those affected by Moscow's aggression there since 2014. Russia is using statements from high-level officials as well as disinformation and propaganda outlets to intentionally spread outright falsehoods to attempt to create a pretext for military action.
❗ Reality:
We all know how the US authorities use disinformation as a pretext to invade independent states. It is enough to recall the infamous vial of Collin Powell that was used as a pretext for US aggression against Iraq. The afore-mentioned amount of US humanitarian assistance is a drop in the ocean compared to the enormous assistance rendered by the Russian Federation to the residents of Donbass.
Please go to The Saker to read more of this important analysis.
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News update for 22 January 2022. German navy caves in to Russia:
Intelligent people also know what is going through Sergey Lavrov's mind when he meets with Blinken...
This is incorrect. It will not be a disaster for Russia. Russia will roll through Ukraine over a weekend then have coffee at a cafe in Kiev on Monday. This will be a disaster for Britain.
The US "toolbox" on Ukraine is empty because the steel toolbox is rusted out:
Related:
Operations underway possibly to set Russia up for a chemical attack similar to what was done in Syria:
Precautionary evacuations are a precursor to war:
US preparing to approve evacuation from embassy in Ukraine: Sources
Russia evacuating embassy in Ukraine – media
Russia evacuating embassy in Ukraine – media
Discussion on the circumstances in Dunbass:
Federal Reserve "fairy dust" magic money:
80% of All US Dollars in Existence Have Been Printed in Just the Last Two Years
80% of All US Dollars in Existence Have Been Printed in Just the Last Two Years
Jamie Dimon at the JPMorgan criminal syndicate called a "bank":
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