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Sitrep: Operation Z
March 29, 2022 | 94 Comments
By Nightvision for the Saker Blog
Several big developments are giving us an idea of a shifting picture on the ground today. First let's start with the fronts where the largest changes took place, and then give a broader strategic analysis.
-Many reports today confirm our previous determination that Russia is in fact conducting a major regrouping of its forces following what Shoigu today has called the successful conclusion of the main objectives of the first phase of operations:
Shoigu: "In general, the main objectives of the first phase of the operation have been achieved. The combat capabilities of the VSU have been significantly reduced, which allows us to focus our main attention and main efforts on achieving the main goal – the liberation of Donbass."
This is in conjunction with the announcement from RF that some VDV units will be withdrawn from the Kiev region as a sign of good faith for the negotiations.
Of course the Western press/analysts have predictably spun this news as, 'Attritioned Russian forces are pulling out and downscaling their operation in order to concentrate on more realistic objectives in the east'.
There is a very informative thread by Scott Ritter today who explains the simple concept of a military 'feint' (misdirection, deception, diversionary tactics etc) we've often mentioned before in the discussion of Russia's opening maneuvers which seemed to many of us who actually follow military matters, to be a 'pinning strategy' that keeps Ukrainian forces from redistributing and relieving their primary forces in Donbass and elsewhere.
"1/ Big Arrow War—a primer. For all those scratching their heads in confusion, or dusting off their dress uniforms for the Ukrainian victory parade in Kiev, over the news about Russia’s "strategic shift", you might want to re-familiarize yourself with basic military concepts.
2/ Maneuver warfare is a good place to start. Understand Russia started its "special military operation" with a severe manpower deficit—200,000 attackers to some 600,000 defenders (or more). Classic attritional conflict was never an option. Russian victory required maneuver.
3/ Maneuver war is more psychological than physical and focuses more on the operational than on the tactical level. Maneuver is relational movement—how you deploy and move your forces in relation to your opponent. Russian maneuver in the first phase of its operation support this.
4/ The Russians needed to shape the battlefield to their advantage. In order to do this, they needed to control how Ukraine employed it's numerically superior forces, while distributing their own smaller combat power to best accomplish this objective.
Please go to Sitrep: Operation Z to learn more.
This is in conjunction with the announcement from RF that some VDV units will be withdrawn from the Kiev region as a sign of good faith for the negotiations.
Of course the Western press/analysts have predictably spun this news as, 'Attritioned Russian forces are pulling out and downscaling their operation in order to concentrate on more realistic objectives in the east'.
There is a very informative thread by Scott Ritter today who explains the simple concept of a military 'feint' (misdirection, deception, diversionary tactics etc) we've often mentioned before in the discussion of Russia's opening maneuvers which seemed to many of us who actually follow military matters, to be a 'pinning strategy' that keeps Ukrainian forces from redistributing and relieving their primary forces in Donbass and elsewhere.
1/ Big Arrow War—a primer. For all those scratching their heads in confusion, or dusting off their dress uniforms for the Ukrainian victory parade in Kiev, over the news about Russia’s “strategic shift”, you might want to re-familiarize yourself with basic military concepts.
— Scott Ritter (@RealScottRitter) March 29, 2022
"1/ Big Arrow War—a primer. For all those scratching their heads in confusion, or dusting off their dress uniforms for the Ukrainian victory parade in Kiev, over the news about Russia’s "strategic shift", you might want to re-familiarize yourself with basic military concepts.
2/ Maneuver warfare is a good place to start. Understand Russia started its "special military operation" with a severe manpower deficit—200,000 attackers to some 600,000 defenders (or more). Classic attritional conflict was never an option. Russian victory required maneuver.
3/ Maneuver war is more psychological than physical and focuses more on the operational than on the tactical level. Maneuver is relational movement—how you deploy and move your forces in relation to your opponent. Russian maneuver in the first phase of its operation support this.
4/ The Russians needed to shape the battlefield to their advantage. In order to do this, they needed to control how Ukraine employed it's numerically superior forces, while distributing their own smaller combat power to best accomplish this objective.
Please go to Sitrep: Operation Z to learn more.
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