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Source: The Heritage Foundation
Failures of an Influential COVID-19 Model Used to Justify Lockdowns
May 18th, 2020 | Kevin Dayaratna, Ph.D.
TAKEAWAYS
Ferguson led the Imperial College team that designed the computer model that, among others, had been used to justify the recent stay-at-home orders in England as well as in the United States. We now know the model was so highly flawed it never should have been relied upon for policy decisions to begin with.
Epidemiology—the study of the incidence, prevalence, and impact of disease—frequently calls upon models to forecast potential outcomes of diseases. Not surprisingly, once COVID-19 became a pandemic, policy experts from all across the world began relying on such models.
The Imperial College researchers ran one such model they had used in prior research and forecast a number of potential outcomes, including that, by October, more than 500,000 people in Great Britain and 2 million people in the U.S. would die as a result of COVID-19.
The model also predicted the United States could incur up to 1 million deaths even with "enhanced social distancing" guidelines, including "shielding the elderly." Imperial’s modeling results influenced British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to impose a nationwide lockdown and influenced the White House as well.
I asked Ferguson and his colleagues for their model on multiple occasions to see how they got their numbers, but they never replied to my emails.
According to Nature, they had been "working with Microsoft to tidy up the code and make it available." I also asked the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for the codes it used to develop its COVID-19 forecasts, but got no response.
So, my colleague Norbert Michel and I decided to take a publicly available COVID-19 epidemiological model and forecast the prevalence and mortality of the disease under a variety of plausible scenarios.
The results varied, depending on the assumptions we made about mortality rates within hospital intensive care units, asymptomatic rates, and the specification of the R0 (pronounced R-naught) value, which measures how easily the virus spreads.
Please go to The Heritage Foundation to read more.
Source: The Heritage Foundation
Failures of an Influential COVID-19 Model Used to Justify Lockdowns
May 18th, 2020 | Kevin Dayaratna, Ph.D.
TAKEAWAYS
1. We now know the model was so highly flawed it never should have been relied upon for policy decisions to begin with.
2. As we learn more about the new coronavirus, it is imperative to continue to update the assumptions used in these models.
3. The Imperial College model didn't meet any of these criteria. And sadly, its model was one of the inputs relied on as the basis for locking down two countries.
Professor Neil Ferguson, who led the COVID-19 modeling team at Imperial College in London, resigned May 5 from his government advisory role after breaking the very same British lockdown rules that he had a role in influencing.
Ferguson led the Imperial College team that designed the computer model that, among others, had been used to justify the recent stay-at-home orders in England as well as in the United States. We now know the model was so highly flawed it never should have been relied upon for policy decisions to begin with.
Epidemiology—the study of the incidence, prevalence, and impact of disease—frequently calls upon models to forecast potential outcomes of diseases. Not surprisingly, once COVID-19 became a pandemic, policy experts from all across the world began relying on such models.
The Imperial College researchers ran one such model they had used in prior research and forecast a number of potential outcomes, including that, by October, more than 500,000 people in Great Britain and 2 million people in the U.S. would die as a result of COVID-19.
The model also predicted the United States could incur up to 1 million deaths even with "enhanced social distancing" guidelines, including "shielding the elderly." Imperial’s modeling results influenced British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to impose a nationwide lockdown and influenced the White House as well.
I asked Ferguson and his colleagues for their model on multiple occasions to see how they got their numbers, but they never replied to my emails.
According to Nature, they had been "working with Microsoft to tidy up the code and make it available." I also asked the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for the codes it used to develop its COVID-19 forecasts, but got no response.
So, my colleague Norbert Michel and I decided to take a publicly available COVID-19 epidemiological model and forecast the prevalence and mortality of the disease under a variety of plausible scenarios.
The results varied, depending on the assumptions we made about mortality rates within hospital intensive care units, asymptomatic rates, and the specification of the R0 (pronounced R-naught) value, which measures how easily the virus spreads.
Please go to The Heritage Foundation to read more.
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More:
Imperial College is Responsible for Deaths & Economic Damage
Having another UK-based university analyze the Imperial College London's Covid model then confirmed by the British BMJ (British Medical Journal) and there is nothing too suspect about this?
More:
Imperial College is Responsible for Deaths & Economic Damage
Having another UK-based university analyze the Imperial College London's Covid model then confirmed by the British BMJ (British Medical Journal) and there is nothing too suspect about this?
Whatever was spawned out of Imperial College London and related organizations in the UK on this global fake Covid "pandemic" in coordination with the WEF we should be doing the opposite:
What is an "imperial scientist?" Is that like an imperial storm trooper researcher or something? The Imperial College London works closely with Klaus Schwab's outfit the World Economic Forum (WEF) constructing Agenda 2030. Falsifying Covid models then rollout a "vaccine revolution." Maybe Schwab over at the WEF would consider changing the name from "Fourth Industrial Revolution" to something more along the lines of the "First Vaccine Revolution?" Perfect:
Do not consent; organize; fight back to end this medical tyranny:
This is the extreme in Bolshevik tactics with what we see gong on in Michigan where Pfizer has a manufacturing plant under construction in Portage with Whitmer doing a little PR work for Pfizer. Michigan is the model state for Covid, lockdowns, masks and injections. Michigan's new state motto: "the injection state." Why is it becoming more like Bolshevik corporations when it comes to these injection firms like Pfizer? Blue Cross Blue Shield PAC gave money to Whitmer's political campaign and Blue Cross Blue Shield is involved in establishing "mass Covid vaccine sites."
Bolsheviks retaliate in Germany:
Bolshevik Biden tells the American people wearing masks is patriotic. The reality is most Americans do not consent to this "government" that has turned into a freak show:
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