A small group of about 150 highly successful...

Editor's note: ...betters on the Polymarket prediction site have earned roughly $8 million from military and defense-related wagers, according to researchers who say their near-perfect win rates on long shot bets strongly suggest they may be military insiders using nonpublic information. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective report flags these "orca" accounts for potential law enforcement scrutiny, notes that their visible blockchain trades could broadcast sensitive details to adversaries, and recommends stronger identity verification on the platform amid related insider-betting cases involving U.S. and Israeli personnel. These alleged military insiders have shamelessly lined their pockets with $8 million in secret Polymarket winnings while more than 750 American service members have been wounded, some seriously, in the ongoing war with Iran. Should we blame these military insiders from profitting off insider information when their "leaders" like Nancy Pelosi did the same thing?
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Gamblers have made $8 million on Polymarket betting on military operations

Researchers say the win rate among 152 accounts on Polymarket is so high that they are "the most likely insiders" betting on the site.

By Patty Nieberg | August 20, 2026

A small number of gamblers have made $8 million placing military and defense-related bets on the Polymarket prediction site, most placed by about 150 accounts that almost always bet correctly. The researchers say they suspect the accounts are linked to military insiders who could be flagged for law enforcement as "the most likely potential insiders," researchers said in a new report.

When the most successful of those accounts bet on unlikely military events, researchers found, they won virtually every single time.

"Traders acting on specialized, non-public information possess an edge that is valuable only within a limited set of markets, and that produces win rates difficult to attribute to luck," researchers with the Anti-Corruption Data Collective said in a new report released Thursday. The researchers studied the small number of bettors who met two criteria: "The concentration of their betting within less than 100 markets and two topics, and unusual accuracy (over 75%) of their longshot bets."

The same research group published a report in April that found a high risk of insider trading on military-related Polymarkets after observing that "longshot" bets on military operations won 52% of the time, which was four times more often than other types of markets.

While 'whales' often lose, 'orcas' almost always win

The collective’s new report hones in on 152 accounts, which researchers analyzed and found certain behaviors that “support our hypothesis that they are the most likely insiders." The accounts, which researchers called "orcas" or “highly specialized, incredibly successful bettors," were compared to whales, who spend the most on a wide range of markets to "devour enormous profits," mostly at the expense of "small fish" bettors who tried their luck but end up "losing out badly to the fat larger competition.”

The collective found that half of the orca accounts made their first long-shot bet within two days of making their Polymarket account and waged higher bets more often on high-risk, low-probability markets. The 152 orca wallets placed $2 million on military longshot bets and won 97.2% of the time for $8 million, or over $52,500 per wallet.

Despite spending overall less money on bets than others, orcas still made a return of 132% compared to whales and small fish whose losses were as high as -2%. At least half of the orcas doubled their money.

Please go to Task & Purpose to continue reading.

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This news is from the US Military's publication Stars & Stripes: 

Shrapnel, broken bones, head trauma: New records show how US troops were wounded in Iran War

Part of the reporting on the recent circumstances for US naval personnel serving on the USS Abraham Lincoln were contrived reports to make President Trump look bad before the midterm elections:

Pentagon moves to fire publisher and editor of Stars and Stripes