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"A Bridge Too Far": Middle East Set For A Massive Escalation
By Tyler Durden | July, 24, 2026
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Unless things change dramatically, the Middle East seems set for massive escalation.
President Trump yesterday warned every missile, rocket, or drone Iran fires at ships in Hormuz will be met with the destruction of an Iranian bridge or power plant.
This morning, the IRGC says a tanker is on fire after an explosion in the strait and Kuwait is under drone attack. Moreover, the Houthis claimed attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, raising the risks of a new global energy chokepoint besides Hormuz.
Reports say the US is surging military forces to the region, heavy bombers are being prepared, and Mossad is coordinating with the CIA. Equally, Iran's Ghalibaf has stated there will be no safety if Iran's security is not guaranteed, read as more or less a declaration of war against the entire region's infrastructure and energy should its own be hit.
Worse, Iranian strikes on CIA Middle-East facilities are prompting US questions about Russian involvement, which would conflate the war more deeply with Russia-Ukraine, where epic damage to Russian energy, shipping, and logistics infrastructure continues to mount. On that note, after Kazakhstan was forced to stop piping oil via the Black Sea due Ukraine's drone attacks, the EU is launching a mission to board Russian shadow fleet ships in the Indian Ocean; however, Russian LNG is to remain exempt from EU sanctions - realpolitik or real weakness?
In the Middle East, the UK is evacuating its remaining diplomatic personnel from Iran, just as it did the day before the Iran war started in February, but Bulgaria is aiding US military operations from its territory. That could potentially make it a target for Iranian reprisals – and it's a NATO and EU member, each with collective defense clauses.
If we see military escalation, it's likely to drive energy prices even higher than the $95.5 level Brent was at this morning with benchmark crack spreads at $68. However, it's unlikely to last long. Neither the US nor Israel, nor Iran, nor the GCC can sustain a no-holds-barred war for long – and the world economy obviously can’t either. As such, we may be close to the beginning of the end of this crisis - it's just unclear if it will prove a bridge too far for the US or Iran.
Meanwhile, the White House is considering military options in Mali, where the Al-Qaeda-linked JNIM are advancing on the capital. That risks further US overstretch. Then again, after the former imperial power France and arrivistes Russia both got a bloody nose in the country, it doesn't look like anyone else is going to act against these jihadis – certainly not Europe, though Mali uses the West African CFA franc that is pegged to the Euro. Of course, Mali is also rich in resources.
As climactic in geoeconomics --but likely to last much longer than events in the Middle East-- yesterday saw Financial Times editor Martin Wolf ask, "Who will win the war of neo-mercantilists?", making clear, "We are living in a mercantilist era." We aren't, because we don't all want to hoard gold (yet) so it's a neo-mercantilism that wants national-security trade surpluses – but he's close enough. Likewise, Stephen Roach today asks in the same paper, "How long can China defy history and logic with its imbalances?" and argues, "The country is demanding far too much of a world fixated on cheap consumer goods."
Please go to Zero Hedge to continue reading.
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From the Young Turks being posted as an alternative view on the NDA's Section 219 and nothing more:
Have you ever wondered what $1.15 trillion in cash would look like stacked on pallets? The ONLY way the current central banking model can exist is by injecting unlimited amounts of credit into the system.
Despite the claims to the contrary, the U.S. is not anywhere close to Russia in operational hypersonic missiles:
Program: "The hoofbeats of Netanyahu's planned WWIII & Armageddon as revenge against the entire Gentile world for it's 'anti-Semitism', and particularly against ROME, meaning the Christian West, which the Pirates of Judea consider to be the worst enemy that the Jews have ever faced":
And who gets to oversee this coming carnage? Why Caesar, of course:
The world pretty much just accepts the fact a global war is coming. No problem. No big deal, millions get killed, massive infrastructure is destroyed and the world just goes on:
Wars are not fought to be "won", they are fought because they are extremely profitable:
This is a very interesting vector in our collective circumstances:
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