One country comes to mind

Editor's note: Can Americans conceive of their country fracturing and a "civil war" erupting? Have you seen video clips of Maga people carrying American flags in pitched street fights against leftists? As political tensions escalate in America they are also escalating in the Middle East. America is being pillaged and there is ample evidence to demonstrate this. Then we move to Iran where thousands of Iranians have been killed including children with alleged Israeli-made bullets found in their bodies? What does all this accumulating chaos and violence including in the Middle East indicate? Pax Judaica. Removing the Islamic regime in Iran is a hugely important Pax Judaica goal.
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Patterns of Force: The Middle East on the Brink

What appears as a series of disconnected crises in the Middle East is, in fact, one unfolding story. The region's instability is no longer driven primarily by old rivalries or proxy wars but by something more dangerous: the normalization of force as a routine tool of politics.

By Salman Rafi Sheikh | January 21, 2026

From the Saudi-UAE rupture in Yemen to rising unrest in Iran and the threat of US intervention, the Middle East is absorbing the shockwaves of a global order in which coercion has replaced restraint and alliances are cracking.

The Implosion of "Stable" Alliances: Saudi, UAE and Yemen

The Middle East's fracturing is no longer just about ancient rivalries and sectarian divides. What's striking today is how allies are turning on each other, exposing fissures beneath the veneer of long-heralded regional stability. Nowhere is this clearer than in Yemen, where a battle once framed as a united front against Iran-aligned Houthi rebels has given way to an open rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), two of Washington's closest partners.

When alliances are built around military force rather than political settlement, they fracture under strain, as Yemen now shows, and threaten wider conflicts

At the end of 2025, Saudi Arabia bombed what it said were weapons shipments linked to the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) in southern Yemen, prompting Riyadh to demand all Emirati troops leave the country. This was not a minor disagreement; it was a direct confrontation between supposed allies on Yemeni soil, underscoring how divergent aims have created a dangerous wedge, one that is threatening to boil over even further.

Indeed, a crisis that started as an attempt to defeat the Iran-backed Houthis has turned into a collision over Yemen's future governance and control of its energy-rich regions, making the conflict more intractable and more dangerous. In effect, Riyadh now interprets the STC's moves and alleged UAE support as a security threat to its own southern border, rather than an asset in the fight against what it long saw as the Iran-backed Houthis.

This unravelling of Saudi–UAE cooperation shouldn't be dismissed as a local power struggle. It reflects a broader pattern in which military power, once a tool for decisive outcomes, has become an instrument of zero-sum competition and distrust, even among friendly states. The instability has an uncanny resemblance to the unravelling of US-EU relations in the wake of President Trump's threats to use military force to occupy Greenland.

The Iranian Case

The Saudi conclusion vis-à-vis the Houthis is also informed not only by its normalisation with Iran but also by the wider geopolitical war Iran is fighting against the US and Israel. This war now seems to have reached well within its domestic arena amidst growing unrest. Therefore, while Yemen illustrates how alliances fracture under stress, Iran's domestic turmoil shows how internal pressures are amplified when compounded by external coercion and geopolitical isolation. Over the first days of January 2026, Iran has experienced its most significant protests in years, with unrest spreading from Tehran to major regional cities including Isfahan, Shiraz, and Mashhad.

In these protests, triggered in part by sharp economic distress such as the rial's collapse, hundreds of people have been killed, and the government has tightened control, including imposing internet blackouts. Iranian officials have even issued veiled threats to strike US military bases and key shipping lanes if "provoked," i.e., if attacked by the US and Israel. The US President has repeatedly threatened Iran with direct military attacks. Reports indicate that such strikes may well happen, which means Trump will extend his 'Venezuela formula' to Iran in the Middle East.

This reaction is not surprising given the long shadow of foreign coercion over Iran's politics. Western powers—particularly the US—have repeatedly embraced militarised coercive policies, from sanctions to threats of regime change. Indeed, sustained foreign pressure often narrows the political space for reform and empowers hardliners rather than moderates, making peaceful domestic transitions more difficult. So Iran's unrest, while driven by local economic grievances, is unfolding in a geopolitical environment where the use of military power is normalized as a policy instrument. For the region's future, the question for states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE themselves is: how long before they are threatened by the same levels of internal and external pressures? After all, what is happening in the Middle East is not unique. It might already be a new global normal.

Please go to New Eastern Outlook to continue reading.

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