Wake up and smell the coffee.

Editor's note: After reading the following material on the coffee bean/market you will likely come to the conclusion the current US administration including the US congress and senate are purposefully destroying the US economy and that includes coffee bean imports from Brazil. Once that trans-Amazon railway is constructed by China it will mean even cheaper exports from Brazil to China. The 50% tariff bombshell on coffee beans that's crushing Jim's morning cup of coffee is a "game-changing trade war move." Except the coffee game-changing isn't going to be in America's favor. Thanks to the trade war, Jim's been so desperate for caffeine that he's been drinking instant chicory and pretending it's espresso for weeks, but hey, at least we're all learning to appreciate coffee like fine wine—mainly because it now costs just as much!
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How US Tariffs Are Making Coffee Extremely Expensive for American Drinkers

August 31, 2025 | By Abel Danger

In early August 2025, the United States implemented what can only be described as a devastating 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, including coffee—a move that has sent shockwaves through the American coffee industry and directly impacted millions of daily coffee drinkers across the country.

This massive tariff increase, that went into effect on August 6th, represents a dramatic escalation from previously lower or zero rates on Brazilian goods. The timing couldn't be worse for American coffee lovers, as Brazil is the source of about 30% of U.S. coffee imports.

The Numbers That Will Make Your Coffee Cost Soar

The scale of this trade disruption is staggering. The US was the main destination for Brazilian coffee, with 7.936 million bags in recent years, representing a massive portion of America's coffee supply chain. This translates to approximately one-third of total US coffee consumption being sourced from Brazil.

The economic impact is already being felt across the industry, with 16.7% of Brazil's coffee exports going to the US – now under threat from the 50% tariffs. Industry experts warn that US roasters face higher prices and sourcing challenges as a direct result of these trade restrictions.

Coffee Prices Are Already Skyrocketing

The effects aren't theoretical—they're happening right now. Coffee prices surged 14.5% in July year over year, with the average retail price for a pound of ground coffee hitting $8.41. This represents just the beginning of what industry insiders predict will be a sustained period of higher coffee costs for American consumers.

The ripple effects extend beyond just price increases. Tariffs on Brazil risk raising global prices and destabilizing long-standing trade flows, meaning even non-Brazilian coffee could become more expensive as suppliers scramble to fill the gap.

What This Means for Your Daily Coffee Routine

For the average American coffee drinker, these tariffs translate to immediate and significant cost increases. Whether you buy your coffee at the grocery store, visit your local café, or rely on office coffee, the 50% tariff is working its way through the supply chain and landing squarely on your bill. Coffee retailers and importers are already expressing serious concerns about the sustainability of current pricing models, with many warning that additional price increases are inevitable as existing inventory is depleted and replaced with tariff-affected imports.

The Broader Industry Impact

This looming tariff threat has likely sent shock waves through the US coffee industry, forcing roasters and businesses to rapidly restructure their supply chains and pricing strategies. Many coffee companies are now scrambling to find alternative suppliers, but replacing Brazil's massive coffee exports isn't going to be all that easy. Meanwhile, Brazil might head to US courts to challenge the legality of the 50 percent tariffs, though any legal resolution could take months or years—far too long to help with immediate price pressures facing American coffee drinkers.

The bottom line? Your morning coffee is about to get significantly more expensive, and unfortunately, there's no quick relief in sight.

Brazil's Strategic Coffee Pivot Toward China

As a direct countermeasure to the US tariff threat, China approved 183 Brazilian coffee exporters under new five-year licenses starting July 30, 2025—strategically timed just before the US tariffs took effect on August 6. This move represents one of the fastest diplomatic and trade responses in recent coffee industry history.

The Numbers Tell the Story

The trade gap between the US and China markets for Brazilian coffee is stark. In June 2025, Brazil exported around 440,000 bags to the US, compared to just 56,000 bags to China—a disparity of nearly 8-to-1 that highlights the enormous opportunity for growth in the Chinese market.

This repositioning builds on significant earlier commitments. A $500 million deal with Luckin Coffee for around 120,000 tons was signed in June 2024, demonstrating Brazil's commitment to diversifying its coffee export markets well before the current tariff crisis.

However, the relationship has expanded dramatically since then. Over the next five years, from 2025 to 2029, Luckin Coffee is scheduled to purchase a total of 240,000 tons of Brazilian coffee beans, valued at 10 billion RMB—representing the company's most substantial coffee procurement initiative to date.

China's Surging Coffee Appetite

The timing couldn't be better for this strategic pivot. Chinese coffee consumption has been experiencing explosive growth, with the market expanding at approximately 20% annually over the past decade. The love for coffee in China is relatively new, with the country only recently developing this taste, but the growth trajectory suggests enormous potential for Brazilian exporters.

This rapid expansion is being driven by urbanization, changing consumer preferences, and the proliferation of coffee chains like Luckin Coffee, which continues to grow at what industry observers describe as "breakneck pace."

Infrastructure Investment Supporting Long-term Growth

Brazil's commitment to the Chinese market extends beyond just export agreements. The construction of trade infrastructure, including a trade hub in Shanghai's Yangpu district, demonstrates the long-term strategic nature of this pivot away from US dependence.

Luckin Coffee itself has invested heavily in infrastructure, opening a new 570,000 square foot roasting facility in Suzhou City, Jiangsu, in April 2024—the largest coffee roasting plant in China, with an annual roasting capacity of 30,000 tons.

Strategic Implications

This pivot represents more than just a tactical response to US tariffs—it's a fundamental reshaping of global coffee trade flows. Brazil's ability to rapidly redirect its coffee exports from the US to China demonstrates the flexibility of modern agricultural trade and highlights China's growing influence as a destination market for premium agricultural commodities.

The speed and scale of this transition suggest that the global coffee industry may be witnessing a permanent shift in trade patterns, with China positioned to become an increasingly dominant force in international coffee markets.

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Oh Mrs. Olson, it's terrible! Ever since these tariffs hit, I can't afford good coffee anymore. Jim's been drinking instant chicory and pretending it's espresso!