Do We Face A Global Food Disaster?

Source: Katehon

June 4, 2019 • F. William Engdahl

No, this is not at all an endorsement of the apocalyptic scenarios of AOC or that famous young Swedish climate expert, Greta. It is, however, a look at unusual weather disasters in several key growing regions from the USA to Australia, the Philippines and beyond that could dramatically affect food availability and prices in the coming year. That in turn could have major political implications depending on how the rest of the growing season develops.

USA Midwest Waterlogged

According to the latest May 20 report of the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the US Department of Agriculture, corn and soybean crops are well behind the planting growth levels normal this time of the planting season. They report that only 49% of all planned corn acreage in the US has been planted compared with 78% at this time a year ago. Of that only 19% has yet emerged from the ground compared to 47% in May 2018. In terms of soybeans, barely 19% of crops have yet been planted compared with 53% a year before. Rice acreage planted is down to 73% compared to 92% a year ago in the six US rice-growing states. Of course, should weather dramatically improve the final harvest numbers could improve. It is simply too early to predict.

The USA is by a wide margin the world largest soybean producer with 34 percent of the world's soybean production and 42% of world exports prior to the China trade battles. The US is also the world largest corn or maize producer, almost double China, the number two. A serious harvest failure in these two crops could significantly affect world food prices, leaving aside the unfortunate fact that almost all US soybeans and corn are GMO crops. They are mainly used in animal feed.

A major factor in the disruption of the US Midwest growing season is the fact that the past 12 months have seen the greatest precipitation levels since the US Government began keeping statistics in 1895, according to the US NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Record snowfall followed by abnormally heavy rains are the reason.

Noteworthy is the fact that a strong Pacific El Niño was in play during 2015-16 and a new El Niño has been confirmed this past winter, somewhat earlier than normal. Precisely how that affected the current weather is not yet clear. El Niño is the periodic warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean.

Connected with solar activity, not manmade factors, it can shift global weather patterns over a period of months, bringing the possibility of more warm, cold, wet or dry weather in parts of the world. They occur in cycles every several years, usually every two to seven years, and it is notable that there is a confirmed, if relatively weak El Nino which is expected to reach peak this month of May. The NOAA in April estimated that the current El Niño conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere for spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance).

Australia and Philippines Severe Drought

While the Midwest USA farm-belt is waterlogged, other regions of the globe suffer drought, most notably, Australia, a major grain producer. For the first time since 2007 Australia is being forced to import wheat, mainly from Canada. Last year drought caused a 20% crop harvest reduction. The Government has issued a bulk import permit to deal with the situation. Current wheat harvest estimates are for only 16 million metric tons, half of what it was two seasons ago. Australia is in recent years the number five world wheat export nation.

Adding to the shortfall of grains, The Philippines is experiencing a major drought since February 2018, which is devastating the current rice crop. Although the country is not one of the world top rice producers—India, Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan comprise a total of some 70% all rice export—it has significant political impact on the troubled country.

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